• Bitcoin [BTC] may have had a good start for the year, but March could still be a challenge due to its historic decline.
• On-chain data suggests that long-term holders of Bitcoin are more than those held on exchanges.
• Analysts Will Clemente and Willy Woo suggest that the reason behind this trend could be linked to the November 2022 FTX collapse.
BTC’s Price Action in March
BTC’s price action has the potential to go against the usual March decline. Coins that had moved in the last decade were now more than those held on exchanges. Bitcoin [BTC] has the „habit“ of performing woefully in March over the years, making it the second worst month over the years, bar 2013. While the first two months of the year may have been off to an excellent beginning, investors might need to watch out for the red-loving month, Miles Deutscher opined.
Bullish Momentum Despite Historical Precedent
2023 is off to a good start for #Bitcoin, with 2 consecutive green months (assuming today’s monthly close holds). But looking ahead: Historically, March has been the 2nd worst performing month – with an average $BTC return of -5.72% (exc. 2013). What’s your outlook for March?👇 pic.twitter.com/jm3JB0JJ0y — Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) February 28, 2023 Is your portfolio green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator Can the king coin disregard the trend? During the first 30 days of the year, BTC went on a 40% uptick. Althought he second month was not as impressive, The King Coin gained 6.71% in te last 14 days as shown by CoinGecko. So does te technical outlook support a green continuation or would it end in a fallback? Considering te Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it was possible tat BTC could trend toward its performance ten years back because te 20-day EMA (blue) was above te 50-day EMA (yellow). While te short to mid-term might offer gain opportunities, te Relative Strength Index(RSI) remained in a neutral state at 5098 implying tat momentum at press time did tend in support of strong bullish or bearish sentiment .
Long Term Holders Outnumber Exchanges
In an interesting update , On Chain analyst and Reflective Research co founder Will Clemente shared tat 10 year dormant addresses were more than BTC held on exchanges at press time . This may however not be surprising since it was unusual for long term holders to suddently exit their positions But short term speculators mostly failed to see out te bear market season . Another On Chain analyst Willy Woo seemed unsurprised by te data Noting tat 26 million BTC has not moved within u period ,Woo mentioned tat Chainalysis projected number grow 37 million by 2030 .Well ,te reasons for unmoved addresses outpacing current exchange holdings could be linked November 2022 FTX collapse This was also reaffirmed Santiment as both BTC and Ethereum ETH fi
Reasons Behind Unmoved Addresses
The reasons behind this trend could be linked to November 2022 FTX collapse which reaffirmed by Santiment as both BTC and Ethereum [ETH] find themselves hovering around all time highs .This suggests that people who bought during bull run had planned hold them for long term without selling them anytime soon .Moreover ,Exchange inflows have decreased significantly since USDT supply spiked post January 2021 indicating less speculative activity from traders .It is also posiible tat investors are using non custodial wallets like Metamask where one can store cryptocurrency directly creating storage points away from exchanges Moreover cold storage solutions such as hardware wallet are always preferred option among long term investors given their security features compared ot centralized ones
In conclusion ,March may prove challenging based upon historical precedent but bullish sentiment is still present due increased number of dormant addresses compared ot exchange holdings suggesting long term holders remain confident about crypto market future performance Also factors such as increase usage non custodial wallets Metamask and cold storage solutions suggest investor confidence remains high regardless any potential market downturns